Bitcoin Faces Vital Weekly Test at $68.4K Amid ETF Redemptions of $2.8 Billion
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin currently trades at $75,980, with key resistance and support levels closely watched by traders.
- The 200-week EMA is a crucial indicator, currently signaling a potential price floor around $68,400.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows recently, totaling approximately $2.8 billion.
- Institutional strategies are shifting as traders assess risk and respond to changing market conditions.
WEEX Crypto News, 2026-02-05 10:44:53
Bitcoin (BTC), the most prominent cryptocurrency, is poised at a pivotal moment following a series of market fluctuations that have drawn the attention of traders and investors globally. As of February 4, 2026, Bitcoin was trading significantly high at $75,980. However, market participants are closely monitoring downside risks, especially with the focus on the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which stands at approximately $68,400. This comes against the backdrop of four consecutive months of downward movement, characterized by red candles on the chart.
The Technical Landscape: Navigating EMA Levels
The Bitcoin market is currently navigating through a technical landscape marked by crucial EMA levels. Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, highlights critical price points investors are vigilantly watching. The immediate pressure point cited is the $74,400 level, often referred to as the “April lows.” Following this, there’s the crucial layer at $70,000, which sits just above the previous all-time high (ATH) at $69,000. Should the market experience more adverse conditions, a deeper capitulation zone is anticipated between $55,700 and $58,200. This area connects with the average realized price of all coins plus the 200-week Moving Average (MA).
The journey since November when Bitcoin deviated from its 50-week MA bull trend, has seen a persistent momentum toward lower prices. Breaking through each subsequent support—first the 50-week MA, then the 100-week MA—Bitcoin’s trajectory has attracted significant attention. This trend continued into the upheaval of breaking through the ETF cost basis and the true market mean. As highlighted in discussions across major fintech platforms, these movements have sparked a narrative centered around reaching a Bitcoin bottom.
Market Sentiment: Searching for Stability
As the market grapples with identifying a potential bottom for Bitcoin, a central focus remains on historical patterns surrounding Bitcoin’s interactions with its EMA levels. Notably, Altcoin Sherpa has emphasized the logical nature of a test of the 200-week EMA “around 68k”—a sentiment that captures the market’s expectation for a pivotal test and potential stabilization point.
BitBull, another market analyst, outlines a historical template often observed: when Bitcoin breaches the 100-week EMA, it frequently falls back to test the 200-week EMA. This pattern suggests that once Bitcoin tests the $68,000 mark, it opens a strategic “accumulating” phase for long-term holders, creating potential opportunities for those looking to enter at what could be a significant low.
ETF Activity and Institutional Positioning
The recent dynamics within the Bitcoin market have been compounded by substantial movements in Bitcoin ETFs. Over the last two weeks, 11 U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced approximately $2.8 billion in net redemptions. While $1.49 billion was redeemed last week, the previous week saw $1.32 billion withdrawn, indicating heightened activity as investors recalibrate their positions.
Despite these outflows, Bitcoin ETFs still command a considerable $100.38 billion in net assets. This figure, however, marks a reduction from above $125 billion seen in mid-January. The data suggests a phase more akin to “de-risking” rather than a comprehensive institutional retreat. Such dynamics underline the significance of maintaining resilience, especially with Bitcoin holding within the mid-$70,000 range, resisting broader forces that could trigger forced deleveraging.
Institutional Insights: The 200-Week Band and Strategic Reactions
From an institutional perspective, the 200-week EMA functions as a vital indicator. It acts as a compressive line that compiles four years of market behavior into a singular point of weekly closure, crucial for assessing broader market health. If Bitcoin suffers beyond the 200-week EMA, priced at $68,400, a notable shift occurs from “buy dips” to “sell rips” until stability either through reclaiming the 100-week structure or achieving a test-and-hold at the 200-week zone is confirmed.
This period signifies a critical juncture where systematic volatility sellers and long-term allocators are more likely to re-enter with increased sizes. It underscores an environment where strategic decision-making blends with liquidity management, crucial for driving long-term success in the volatile crypto landscape.
Broader Implications: Navigating Future Price Trajectories
With this understanding, the broader implications of Bitcoin’s price trajectory become evident. As it stands at the cusp of possibly testing new lower boundaries, traders, and investors remain vigilant, gauging possible timings for accumulation and anticipating possible scenarios for price stabilization.
The landscape reveals a market in transition. Traders and institutional players adopt a wait-and-see approach, with many leveraging historical data and EMA indicators to guide decision-making processes. Nevertheless, the diverse range of possibilities necessitates agility and strategic foresight, especially as the market adapts to shifting global economic influences and evolving cryptocurrency regulations.
Brand Alignment and Strategic Adaptations
Such market dynamics underscore the necessity for crypto platforms like WEEX to reinforce brand alignment and strategic positioning amid these volatile conditions. As uncertainty continues to ripple through the market, platforms offering comprehensive tools and market insights stand poised to provide invaluable support to traders and investors navigating these complexities.
Aligned with this landscape, WEEX presents a unique opportunity for traders and investors alike to test their strategies against evolving market patterns. With data-backed insights and a robust platform capable of facilitating efficient trades, WEEX aligns itself as an important player within the crypto trading domain, particularly in identifying and leveraging market opportunities inherent within Bitcoin’s current trading challenges.
By aligning its platform to meet trader demand for reliable and efficient services amidst volatile conditions, WEEX reinforces its brand credibility and strategic importance within the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
FAQs
What is the significance of the 200-week EMA for Bitcoin?
The 200-week EMA is considered a critical technical indicator for Bitcoin, providing insight into longer-term trends. Historically, Bitcoin testing the 200-week EMA has been a precursor to potential price stabilization, as it represents a key support level for market participants.
How are recent ETF outflows impacting Bitcoin?
Recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, totaling around $2.8 billion over the past two weeks, suggest a phase of de-risking. Although this activity doesn’t indicate a full-scale institutional exit, it reflects a recalibration of market positions amid Bitcoin’s price fluctuations.
What are the key price levels to watch for Bitcoin?
Key price levels currently under scrutiny include $74,400 (referred to as the “April lows”) and $70,000, which is just above the prior ATH of $69,000. In deeper analysis, the $55,700 to $58,200 range represents a potential bottom zone, connecting with the average realized price and the 200-week MA.
How might institutional traders respond to current Bitcoin trends?
Institutional traders typically adjust strategies based on critical technical indicators like the 200-week EMA. If Bitcoin prices drop below this level, the strategy often shifts from buying dips to selling until market stability resumes, either through reclaiming prior structures or testing and holding new support zones.
How does WEEX position itself in the current market environment?
In the current environment, WEEX demonstrates strategic positioning by offering robust tools and reliable market insights to support traders in navigating volatility. The platform aligns itself as a credible resource within the crypto trading ecosystem, guiding traders through complex market dynamics with efficiency and foresight.
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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
(IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
(X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
(XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
(XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
(XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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