This viral Beijing high school teacher, Jiang Xueqin, predicted America's downfall in advance

On March 21, renowned American media personality Tucker Carlson released his latest interview program.

The guest was not a former senator, retired general, or a prestigious scholar from a Washington think tank. Instead, it was a Chinese man named Jiang Xueqin. His usual role is teaching history and philosophy at a private high school called the "Moon Exploration School" in Beijing's Chaoyang District.

The program lasted over an hour, covering topics from the trajectory of the Iran War to the possibility of Japan's nuclearization, Israel's strategic calculations, the actual combat capability of U.S. ground forces, and the role played by Trump in all of this.

To truly understand this episode, we must start with Tucker Carlson.

The Lost Tucker Carlson

If someone were to ask who is the political journalist who best represents the core soul of America in this era, Tucker Carlson is an unavoidable name.

Tucker Carlson

He is a top U.S. political commentator. The program he hosted, Tucker Carlson Tonight, has long held the highest viewership among U.S. political programs and is the most important platform for conservative discourse.

More importantly, he is also one of the most important media allies of the MAGA movement. Trump views him as "one of his own," and during the 2024 election, the two appeared together on stage multiple times. Carlson was almost the loudest trumpet of the MAGA movement in the media arena.

But everything changed after the U.S.-Israel joint military strike on Iran in February.

Carlson publicly denounced the war, calling the joint strike action "disgusting and extremely evil," and explicitly stated, "This is Israel's war, not America's war." Trump then kicked him out of MAGA, saying, "Tucker has lost his way; he is not MAGA. MAGA is about making America great again, MAGA is about America first, and Tucker is none of these."

Since then, Carlson has publicly stated that the CIA is preparing to sue him for "being an unregistered foreign agent" with the sole reason being that he had text contact with the Iranian side before the war broke out.

This war has also evolved into a rift between the MAGA camp and the establishment: The establishment is trying to reverse its decline through the war, while some, represented by Carlson, believe it is digging its own grave. Trump kicked Carlson out of MAGA, a microcosm of this internal split.

Carlson now faces an ironic fate: he has often predicted on his show that the "deep state" would use legal means to suppress dissenters. But now he has become a dissenter himself.

At this crucial moment, he invited Jiang Xueqin, a Beijing high school teacher who predicted two years ago that America would lose this war, to sit in front of his camera.

Three Predictions that Made Him Famous

In May 2024, when Biden was still leading the White House, and Trump had not yet survived two assassination attempts that summer, the election was far from certain. In what seemed like an ordinary class, Jiang Xueqin made three predictions to his students:

1. Trump will win the election in November.

2. The U.S. will be involved in a war with Iran.

3. The U.S. will lose this war and thus permanently alter the global order.

Looking back now, the first two predictions have both come true:

On November 5, 2024, Trump defeated his opponent Harris in the U.S. election.

On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a military strike against Iran.

Predictive History Video Screenshot

And the third prediction is still unfolding.

He posted these classroom contents on his YouTube channel, "Predictive History." No subtitles, no editing, just the clean-cut Mr. Jiang and a blackboard. According to his own account, the channel was inspired by the concept of "psychohistory" from the science fiction writer Isaac Asimov: believing in the structural rules of history, future trends can be deduced through mathematical models and group psychology analysis.

After the U.S.-Iran war broke out, this old video from 2024 went viral across the entire internet, with American viewers marveling in the comments section. This also brought Jiang Xueqin great fame, with the video surpassing 4 million views in a single day and the channel gaining over 2 million subscribers.

Will the US Lose This Middle East War?

In 415 BC, immersed in the illusion of imperial peak, Athens recklessly treated Sicily as a low-hanging fruit. They deployed the most luxurious expeditionary fleet in history, but due to a broken supply line and crumbling local support, they buried a whole generation of the finest young men, along with almost all their savings, in that distant land.

This is Jiang Xueqin's historical analogy of the potential fate of the United States after getting involved in Iran.

His core argument is that the US military is essentially a Cold War-era "muscle-flexing" system, costly, focused on technological deterrence, rather than the resilience of a prolonged attrition war. This mismatch is manifested in reality as a ludicrous asymmetry, such as using a multi-million-dollar interceptor missile to counter a $50,000 drone.

Even after the war begins, Jiang Xueqin still believes that Iran has the upper hand over the US. He pointed out in an interview on the US independent news commentary show Breaking Points on March 3 that Iran holds a wicked trump card: by targeting desalination facilities in the Gulf region, they could cripple the entire petrodollar system within weeks.

90% of Kuwait's drinking water comes from desalination, while Saudi Arabia relies on it for 70%. Once these facilities suffer systemic destruction, it will deepen regional instability, further exacerbate humanitarian crises and migration crises in the Gulf region.

Jiang Xueqin on Breaking Points

And just five days after the show aired, on March 8, Iran attacked a desalination plant in Bahrain.

Desalination Plants in the Middle East

On Tucker Carlson's show, Jiang Xueqin's predictions look even further and more unsettling:

The modern global economy is built on one assumption: energy is cheap and abundant. And now that assumption is unraveling.

Tucker Carlson and Jiang Xueqin in Conversation

Jiang Xueqin believes that the Iran War will be highly similar to the Ukraine War: dragging on and turning into a war of attrition. The United States cannot withdraw because once they do, the only regional power that can fill the security void is Iran. And about one-fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day. If the Gulf countries lean towards Iran, the petrodollar system will collapse.

His statement is very direct: "The current U.S. economy is essentially a Ponzi scheme, relying on foreign countries continuously buying dollars to keep it running." The U.S. currently carries nearly $39 trillion in debt, relying for decades on oil-producing countries settling oil in dollars and then recycling the money back into the U.S. economy. Once this cycle is interrupted, the consequences will be devastating.

Building on this assessment, he outlined three major trends that he believes will come regardless of who wins or loses: deindustrialization due to expensive energy, countries being forced to rearm, and the return of mercantilism after the collapse of the global supply chain.

He also predicted that, in order to maintain the front, Trump is highly likely to order a national draft, leading to street riots, followed by the deployment of the National Guard. "So, unfortunately, the United States will likely experience factional violence for many years," he said on the show.

Under this logic, this year's Oscar-winning film *World War III* may no longer be some kind of scenario on the screen but the final rehearsal on the eve of systemic collapse.

Foundation of His Predictions

Jiang Xueqin's journey of growth is itself a practical history that crosses borders. At the age of 6, he immigrated to Canada with his family and then grew up in Toronto. With a scholarship, he entered Yale to major in English literature. After graduation, he returned to China. For nearly twenty years, he has worked as a journalist, documentary director, United Nations project officer, and deeply involved in China's education reform practice.

In 2022, he returned to Beijing and joined X School. Its founder, Wang Xiqiao, born in the 1990s, is also an active education innovator.

X School's educational logic is inherently consistent with the direction Jiang Xueqin has been deeply cultivating for twenty years: abandoning the assessment of students based on subject scores and emphasizing problem-solving in the real world.

Jiang Xueqin on the X School Website

Here at X School, Jiang Xueqin teaches a year-long Western philosophy course, guiding students to read *The Epic of Gilgamesh*, Plato's *The Republic*, and Descartes' *Meditations*. But what he really wants to teach students is: to critically and objectively examine themselves and the world from a higher perspective.

This is exactly the underlying ability upon which his three predictions relied, not a mere accumulation of knowledge in a specific field, but a mindset that penetrates the surface, identifies structural patterns, and reveals underlying truths.

Individuals Who Grasp Patterns Are Rare in Any Era

In one of his lectures, Jiang Xueqin once said that a correct historical framework should achieve three things at the same time: connect the past, explain the present, and predict the future. Only by accomplishing these three points can one possibly approach the truth.

The glow of the desalination plant, the fissure in the petrodollar — these are all inevitable manifestations when structural forces reach a certain point. Asimov's "psychohistory" is fascinating because it believes that beneath the surface chaos, history has its own grammar. His three predictions were a real-world validation of this framework.

However, the framework itself does not provide answers. Perhaps this is also why Jiang Xueqin chose to stay in the classroom, not because the classroom was safe enough, but because there were still people there willing to ask questions earnestly.