What kind of scenario will Backpack's TGE today play out in the bear market opening?

Original Title: "Backpack Today's TGE, Will the Bear Market Opening Act Follow?"

Original Author: Mach, Foresight News

On March 23, Solana ecosystem's renowned wallet and centralized exchange platform Backpack will launch the BP token TGE.

According to Backpack's official prior announcement, the total token supply is set at 1 billion, with the contract address being: BPxxfRCXkUVhig4HS1Lh7kZqV6SPJhzfEk4x6fVBjPCy.

25% of the tokens will unlock at TGE (24% for token holders; 1% for Mad Lads). 37.5% of the tokens will unlock pre-IPO. They will unlock based on key milestones. All token allocations will be distributed to users who meet each supply milestone, based on measurable regulatory progress, product expansions, and broader market access.

Post-listing, 37.5% will unlock. As corporate treasury funds, they will remain fully locked until 1 year post IPO. The tokens are held as strategic digital asset reserves for long-term value creation. All team members and investors receive token exposure through the corporate treasury.

Of these, during the TGE phase, an immediate unlock of 25% totaling 2.5 billion will be directed solely to community users, with no team or investor share participating in the initial circulation.

Backpack founder Armani Ferrante revealed the guiding principles of the project's tokenomics design. The core objective is to prevent insiders from dumping on retail, with the founder, executives, employees, or venture capitalists not profiting from the token until the project is listed in the United States.

In addition, circulating tokens will be specifically allocated to users to be used for business growth incentives at key milestones such as entering new regions (e.g., EU, Japan, U.S.) or launching new products (e.g., prediction, stocks, bank cards, etc.).

Armani Ferrante emphasized that no founder, executive, team member, or venture capitalist received a direct token allocation. The entire team allocation will be held in the company treasury and locked for at least one year post listing. Team members hold equity in the company, with the company holding most of the token supply, and the team can only profit after the company's listing or an equity exit event occurs.

Users need to log in to the Backpack website or mobile app to complete the TGE verification process. The system will automatically calculate and distribute the allocation based on the relative proportion of points at the time of the snapshot. Mad Lads NFT holders only need to connect their corresponding wallet to automatically receive their allocation without any further action. Once users have completed this, they can see the "TGE Verified" badge in the Points - Achievements section.

Currently, users cannot yet query the specific airdrop data. Backpack has stated that the specific allocation and the points-to-token conversion ratio will be announced, displayed, and claimable only after the TGE has commenced.

Backpack's disclosed points accumulation mechanism includes metrics such as trading volume, asset holding duration, invitation, and product usage depth. In addition to this, Backpack has introduced a staking-to-equity conversion mechanism where users can stake BP for at least one year to convert it into company equity at a fixed ratio.

A total of 20% of Backpack's company shares will be allocated to eligible stakers, with staking duration, amount, and platform product usage serving as weighted factors to determine IPO priority allocation rights.

The Value Proposition?

Prior to this airdrop, Backpack's anti-whale measures have been continuously enhanced, requiring all accounts participating in points activities to undergo KYC verification. In the early 2026 "Epilogue" phase, Backpack conducted an audit and identified and recovered over 50 million so-called "fake points" through data analysis.

Backpack has requested all airdrop recipients to perform a second manual confirmation by the deadline of March 15, 2026. Many bot accounts may now be in an "offline" or "management vacuum" state after long-term scoring. The requirement for manual clicks within a specific window, and even re-verification, serves as a final measure to filter out those automated accounts engaged in "score and run" behavior. User X humorously referred to themselves as a Metabape, saying, "Opened an account with 270,000 points, only to find: 1000 coins."

Backpack's "Milestone Unlock + Equity Conversion" model is an industry first. Furthermore, Backpack has obtained licenses from multiple countries including the UAE, the UK, and Europe, with a clear path to IPO. Once the company achieves business milestones, Pre-IPO unlocks will create a positive feedback loop. Of course, risks also exist: failure to meet milestones may result in temporarily restricted liquidity, but this is precisely the design intent—ensuring that token release is tied to actual value creation.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of the market betting on its FDV exceeding $100 million the day after its launch is 98%, corresponding to a token price of $0.1. The probability of it exceeding $200 million is 87%, with a token price of $0.2, while the probability of the FDV exceeding $300 million has dropped significantly to 44%, with only an 11% probability of exceeding $500 million.

This means that the current market players on Polymarket are predicting the price range to be around $0.1-$0.2.

It is worth noting that the $100 million to $200 million FDV range is also the publicly estimated valuation range of Backpack's last funding round.

In February 2024, Backpack raised $17 million in a strategic Series A funding round at a valuation of $120 million, led by Placeholder, with participation from Hashed, Robot Ventures, Amber Group, Wintermute, Jump Crypto, Delphi Digital, among others. In September 2022, Backpack had previously raised $20 million with investments led by FTX Ventures and Jump Crypto.

In February 2026, according to Axios, insiders reported that Backpack Exchange is in negotiations for a new funding round, aiming to raise $50 million at a pre-money valuation of $1 billion. However, there is no final outcome yet.

According to official data, Backpack currently has $137 million in open positions, with assets under custody totaling approximately $350 million and a nominal lending value of $330 million. Due to the airdrop expectations, the total trading volume has reached $43.3 trillion.

Currently, the crypto market is in a deep bear market phase, with Bitcoin fluctuating around $70,000. Some crypto projects have chosen to shut down due to immense pressure. While Backpack has been urged by the community to launch its token multiple times, issues such as hacking and system failures leading to compensations have caused its team to only conduct the Token Generation Event (TGE) at the worst moment in the market.

So, after the Backpack TGE, will the market's incoming funds choose to support or completely abandon it? Today will reveal the answer.

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